Tuesday, June 27, 2006

No Trophy For England


England won't get near winning the World Cup and will finish the tournament in eighth place - according to mathematicians.

Boffins at Warwick University reckon the team walking away with the title will be Brazil.

After checking the results of 5,000 of the most recent games and compiling data on how 200 teams have been performing, researchers came up with statistics for all 32 qualifying entrants.

They say bookies have been overconfident giving odds of 21% to Brazil, though the team still comes top based on their figures with a 17% chance.

The maths experts say bookmakers are up to 4% adrift on their odds for Spain - in second place on their leader board.

And fans betting with their hearts rather than their heads explains the 11% chance bookies gave to England compared to the 6% from Warwick University, according to a spokesman.
Dr Henry Stott.

Dr Henry Stott defended the figures, saying: "I'm not looking to break the illusion I just think that there is a role for the passion of watching the games but also a role for objectively assessing them."

Speaking to Sky News he added: "The World Cup so far has been reasonably predictable and we have called about 80% of the games correctly. Normally we are more in the 55% range and most other pundits are usually in the 45% range."

But he admitted that no system is foolproof. "Trinidad drawing against Sweden and one or two other games like that. We only have to look back two years to Greece and people are standing there with their jaws on the table saying 'how did they do that?'"

The researchers are so confident about their workings out that they have placed bets on World Cup games.

To find out more about the odds, check out

www.dectech.org

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